Integrated Bayesian analysis of rare exonic variants to identify risk genes for schizophrenia and neurodevelopmental disorders

Abstract Background Integrating rare variation from trio family and case–control studies has successfully implicated specific genes contributing to risk of neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) including autism spectrum disorders (ASD), intellectual disability (ID), developmental disorders (DDs), and epilepsy (EPI). For schizophrenia (SCZ), however, while sets of genes have been implicated through the study of rare variation, only two risk genes have been identified. Methods We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling of rare-variant genetic architecture to estimate mean effect sizes and risk-gene proportions, analyzing the largest available collection of whole exome sequence data for SCZ (1,077 trios, 6,699 cases, and 13,028 controls), and data for four NDDs (ASD, ID, DD, and EPI; total 10,792 trios, and 4,058 cases and controls). Results For SCZ, we estimate there are 1,551 risk genes. There are more risk genes and they have weaker effects than for NDDs. We provide power analyses to predict the number of risk-gene discoveries as more data become available. We confirm and augment prior risk gene and gene set enrichment results for SCZ and NDDs. In particular, we detected 98 new DD risk genes at FDR < 0.05. Correlations of risk-gene posterior probabilities are high across four NDDs (ρ>0.55), but low between SCZ and the NDDs (ρ