Forest structure explains spatial heterogeneity of decadal carbon dynamics in a cool-temperate forest

Accurate evaluation of forest biomass distribution and its long-term change over wide areas is required for effective forest carbon management and prediction of landscape-scale forest dynamics. We evaluated a landscape-scale (225 km ^2 ) decadal forest carbon budget at a 1 ha spatial resolution in a cool-temperate forest, by repeating airborne laser observations 10 years apart and partitioning net forest biomass change (FBC) into growth and mortality. Using >10 000 samples, we revealed that naturally regenerated forests have large spatial heterogeneity in net biomass change, and 3/4 of the photosynthetically acquired carbon stock moved to necromass even without anthropogenic disturbances. Actual carbon residence time as living tree biomass was estimated by dividing biomass by growth or mortality rates. The residence time was 107 and 106 years, respectively with large spatial variation among stands (48 and 42 years, respectively, as the difference between 25 and 75 percentile), although studied forest stands have small variation in the forest functional type in a landscape-scale. The best predictors of subsequent decadal biomass changes were two forest structural factors, mean canopy height and canopy height variation in addition to one environmental factor, elevation. Considering the long lifetime of trees, these structural factors may be an indicator of forest soundness rather than a cause of forest growth or mortality. However, in any cases, these structural factors can be powerful predictors of subsequent FBC.