Refining outcome prediction after traumatic brain injury with machine learning algorithms

Abstract Outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) is typically assessed using the Glasgow outcome scale extended (GOSE) with levels from 1 (death) to 8 (upper good recovery). Outcome prediction has classically been dichotomized into either dead/alive or favorable/unfavorable outcome. Binary outcome prediction models limit the possibility of detecting subtle yet significant improvements. We set out to explore different machine learning methods with the purpose of mapping their predictions to the full 8 grade scale GOSE following TBI. The models were set up using the variables: age, GCS-motor score, pupillary reaction, and Marshall CT score. For model setup and internal validation, a total of 866 patients could be included. For external validation, a cohort of 369 patients were included from Leuven, Belgium, and a cohort of 573 patients from the US multi-center ProTECT III study. Our findings indicate that proportional odds logistic regression (POLR), random forest regression, and a neural network model achieved accuracy values of 0.3–0.35 when applied to internal data, compared to the random baseline which is 0.125 for eight categories. The models demonstrated satisfactory performance during external validation in the data from Leuven, however, their performance were not satisfactory when applied to the ProTECT III dataset.