Risk evaluation, spatiotemporal evolution, and driving factors of provincial food safety in China

The cross-regional transfer of food safety risks has become more prominent, bringing new challenges to the food ecosystem and food safety regulation. This study develops an evaluation index system of food safety risks based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) framework. The food safety risk indices of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 are calculated by determining the index weights using the real-coded accelerated genetic algorithm–projection pursuit model (RAGA-PP). Furthermore, this study elaborates the spatiotemporal differences and correlations of provincial food safety risks, characterizes the spatial aggregation and spatiotemporal changes of risks, and investigates driving factors affecting the spatiotemporal evolution of risks. The following findings are established. First, the overall risk value of food safety in China in 2020 decreased by approximately 5% compared with year 2010. In 2020, the national food safety environment was relatively favorable and tended toward stability. The overall trend of food safety risks in China is decreasing, although socioeconomic development has increased the risks, and the corresponding social management measures have also reduced the risks. Second, food safety risks were unevenly distributed among provinces, showing significant regional differences. Specifically, generally higher risks were observed in eastern provinces versus other regions and in coastal provinces versus inland provinces. Concentrated and superimposed risks were observed in the Yangtze River Delta, a large urban agglomeration centered on Shanghai. Lastly, population density and urbanization level were the main drivers of the evolution of regional food safety risks; whereas policy instruments used by the government to manage risks played a limited role. The results show that establishing a cross-regional collaborative governance mechanism to manage food safety risks should constitute an important component of the regional integration strategy of China.