Back to Search Start Over

Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility

Authors :
Haamed Al Hassan, MB BCh
Eve Cocks, DN
Lara Jesani, MB BCh
Sally Lewis, MRCGP
Tamas Szakmany, MD, PhD
on behalf of the Gwent COVID-19 Group
A. Allen-Ridge
E. Baker
C. Bailey
T. Baumer
S. Beckett
S. Champanerkar
Y. Cheema
S. Cherian
E. Cocks
S. Cutler
E. Dawe
A. Dhadda
S. Dumont
N. Duric
S. Elgarf
T. Evans
E. Godfrey
L. Harding
D. Hepburn
A. E. Heron
L. Jesani
P. Jones
C. Killick
C. King
A. Kiss
J. Lavers
J. Lloyd-Evans
N. Mason
L. McClelland
B. Muthuswamy
J. Parry-Jones
E. Phillips
S. Pooley
B. Radford
O. Richards
A. Rimmer
G. Roberts
A. Roynon-Reed
A. Sieunarine
K. Sullivan
T. Szakmany
C. Thomas
E. Thomas
J. Tozer
T. West
M. Winstanley
Source :
Critical Care Explorations, Vol 2, Iss 10, p e0253 (2020)
Publication Year :
2020
Publisher :
Wolters Kluwer, 2020.

Abstract

Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59–82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550–0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411–0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543–0.714).

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
26398028 and 00000000
Volume :
2
Issue :
10
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Critical Care Explorations
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.8aac6d750354c48bb0c861f989bca7e
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253