Systemic immune-related spleen radiomics predict progression-free survival in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer underwent definitive chemoradiotherapy

Abstract Purpose Systemic immunity is essential for driving therapeutically induced antitumor immune responses, and the spleen may reflect alterations in systemic immunity. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of contrast-enhanced CT-based spleen radiomics for progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC) who underwent definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT). Additionally, we investigated the role of spleen radiomics features and changes in spleen volume in assessing systemic immunity. Methods This retrospective study included 257 patients with LACC who underwent dCRT. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation groups in a 7:3 ratio. Radiomic features were extracted from CT images obtained before and after dCRT. Radiomic scores (Radscore) were calculated using features selected through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression. The percentage change in spleen volume was determined from measurements taken before and after treatment. Independent prognostic factors for PFS were identified through multivariate Cox regression analyses. Model performance was evaluated with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the C-index. The Radscore cut-off value, determined from the ROC curve, was used to stratify patients into high- and low-risk survival groups. The Wilcoxon test was used to analyze differences in hematological parameters between different survival risk groups and between different spleen volume change groups. Spearman correlation analysis was used to explore the relationship between spleen volume change and hematological parameters. Results Independent prognostic factors included FIGO stage, pre-treatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (pre-NLR), spleen volume change, and Radscore. The radiomics-combined model demonstrated the best predictive performance for PFS in both the training group (AUC: 0.923, C-index: 0.884) and the validation group (AUC: 0.895, C-index: 0.834). Compared to the low-risk group, the high-risk group had higher pre-NLR (p = 0.0054) and post-NLR (p = 0.038). Additionally, compared to the decreased spleen volume group, the increased spleen volume group had lower post-NLR (p = 0.0059) and post-treatment platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (p