Sensitivity analysis on stormwater management response to land cover dynamics and urban expansion of developing City in Lake Hawassa watershed, Ethiopia

Abstract Hawassa is a rapidly developing city in Lake Hawassa watershed of Ethiopia. Analyzing the effect of land cover dynamics on surface runoff remains imperative to adaptive urban stormwater management. This study quantified spatial variation of land cover and sensitivity of stormwater management response. Historical 30 years of daily annual rainfall, three satellite imageries, DEM, and hydrological soil group data were analyzed. A statistical‐based combined approach of geospatial techniques and Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) model was employed. CN and surface runoff depth for the delineated urban watersheds were determined. The result revealed that the built‐up area increased by 30.9 km2, where the rate varies spatially. The variation of impervious land cover explains 58.6% of change in CN with coefficient of 0.352. While CN is inversely correlated with agricultural and vegetation land cover variations. The finding suggests CN explains 96.78% of the change in surface runoff with a significant correlation coefficient of 3.91. The proposed integrated model approach justifies the potential to reorganize the relationship between the spatial effect of land cover variation on surface runoff at the urban watersheds. Thus, suitable local‐specific solutions can be devised for effective management of flood risk and optimize the drainage system of urban areas.