Level and timing of product substitution in a trial of e-cigarettes for smokers not interested in quitting

Introduction The e-cigarette market is large and diverse. Traditional smoking cessation trials involving a control group and a 6-month observation period are an inefficient methodology for testing the multiple treatment options e-cigarettes provide for harm reduction in cigarette smokers. We determined when product substitution occurred in the e-cigarette provision arm of an e-cigarette substitution trial for cigarette smokers who were not interested in quitting. Methods We conducted a secondary analysis of 120 cigarette smokers with severe mental illness (recruitment 2017–2020) who were given disposable e-cigarettes for 8 weeks and assessed at weeks 0 (t0), 2, 4, 6, and 8. We explored product substitution through visit-to-visit correlations in change in product use, then developed a dual process growth model for cigarette and e-cigarette use to test the association between increases in e-cigarette use and concurrent decreases in cigarettes smoked. Results Mean age of the participants was 45.9 years, and 42.7% smoked ≥20 cigarettes per day. Almost all product substitution occurred between t0 and t2. For the average smoker (18 cigarettes per day), t2 cigarette frequency decreased by 0.39 (95% CI: -0.56 – -0.22) cigarettes for each additional e-cigarette session. There was effect modification (p=0.033), such that baseline light smokers (