Multidrivers of energy-related carbon emissions and its decoupling with economic growth in Northwest China

Abstract Northwest China has great natural resource endowment to develop its economy, but factors such as geographic remoteness and technological backwardness result in lower economic levels and higher carbon emissions. This study calculated the energy-related carbon emissions of five provinces in this region, and the evolutionary characteristics of energy-related carbon emissions were analysed from the spatiotemporal perspective. The Kaya identity was applied to decompose the factors influencing energy-related carbon emissions, and the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) and refined Laspeyres index were combined to calculate the role of each influencing factor on energy-related carbon emissions. Finally, the Tapio and LMDI models were used to analyse the evolution of the decoupling relationship between energy-related carbon emissions and economic growth and the role of various influencing factors. The energy-related carbon emissions in Northwest China showed an increasing trend. In terms of influencing factors, economic growth and urban expansion had the highest contributions to carbon emissions and decoupling inhibition, whereas population agglomeration had the opposite effect. Northwest China showed great decoupling trends between energy-related carbon emissions and economic growth.