Modeling of methane emissions from waste disposal sites at selected Egyptian governorates and potential energy production from waste-to-energy projects

Abstract Waste and energy sectors have significant contributions to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused primarily by the population expansion. Waste-to-Energy (WtE) is introduced to address the issue raised by both sectors simultaneously through utilization of the potential energy stored in municipal solid waste (MSW) as well as offsetting GHG emissions. Limited research have been conducted in Egypt to assess the current situation of MSW management and associated methane emissions. The current study focused on estimating the baseline methane emissions for six Egyptian governorates and determining the energy production potential from WtE projects. To achieve this aim, three scenarios have been assessed: Baseline, Landfill Gas to Energy (LFGE), and Incineration scenarios. Key results revealed that a total of 3.7 million tonnes of methane would be emitted from all studied governorates generated over 50 years. Incineration also found to be more favorable in all governorates in terms of energy production, quantity of avoided GHG emissions, and in terms of economic viability over LFGE. Implementing incineration in all governorates would generate about 5.6 TWh energy annually and could avoid about 5 Mt CO2 eq annually in comparison to LFGE that would generate about 0.6 TWh annually and could avoid about 2.5 Mt CO2 eq annually. In terms of economic viability of WtE projects, while they were generally not economically viable under the assumptions made in the current study, incineration technology deemed promising, but policy adjustments, such as competitive Feed-in Tariff (FiT) rates and the inclusion of gate fees, are necessary. Specific minimum gate fees and FiT were identified for each governorate, providing essential guidance for decision makers to ensure the viability of WtE implementation. This study would support the decision makers in assessing technically and financially feasible options for WtE technologies in the selected governorates.