Rock glacier inventory and predictive modeling in the Mackenzie Mountains: predicting rock glacier likelihood with a generalized additive model

Rock glaciers have been the subject of extensive research in recent years due to their potential to serve as indicators of past and present climate conditions and their potential impacts on water resources. Location and descriptive rock glacier data within the Mackenzie Mountains were used to build a rock glacier inventory that will serve as a valuable resource for future research and monitoring efforts. Additionally, this study maps the likelihood of rock glacier presence using extracted variables in a generalized additive model (GAM). The model incorporates attribute data, including potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), topographic position index (TPI), slope, elevation, and lithology as controls for rock glacier development. Topographic data were compiled for three study regions of the Mackenzie Mountains from a 30 m digital elevation model (DEM). The analysis of the GAM showed that the most significant explanatory variables were PISR, elevation, slope, and TPI. The GAM model had an accuracy of 0.87 with a sensitivity of 0.92. This study provides important insights into the controls, distribution, and dynamics of rock glaciers in the Mackenzie Mountains, as well as both the limitations and the potential of statistical models in predicting their occurrence.