Prediction of oesophageal varices in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis by non-invasive markers

Introduction: Preliminary data suggested that non-invasive methods could be useful to assess presence of oesophageal varices (OV) in liver cirrhosis. The primary objectives were to investigate non-invasive markers for diagnosing and grading OV in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Material and methods: This study included a total of 106 consecutive treatment-naive patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). Results of physical examination, blood tests, and abdominal ultrasound scan (USS) were measured. Performance of non-invasive markers for OV was expressed as sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), accuracy, and area under the curve (AUC). Results: Oesophageal varices were found in 54 (50.9%) and large OV in 28 of the 106 patients. Variables found to differ significantly between patients with any grade or large and without OV included increased spleen length, increased portal vein diameter, low platelet count, and low levels of albumin or low -glutamyltranspeptidase (-GGT) values. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve showed that spleen length (cutoff = 156.0) had AUC 0.753 (95% CI: 0.657–0.849), and high NPV (82.1%) to exclude any grade OV. Large OV could be excluded with NPV 70.6% by spleen length. Conclusions : Predictive risk factors that use readily available laboratory results and ultrasound scan results may reliably identify esophageal varices in patients with PBC.