Current and Future Distribution of Five Timber Forest Species in Amazonas, Northeast Peru: Contributions towards a Restoration Strategy

Forest and land degradation is a serious problem worldwide and the Peruvian National Map of Degraded Areas indicates that 13.78% (177,592.82 km2) of the country’s territory is degraded. Forest plantations can be a restoration strategy, while conserving economically important species affected by climate change and providing forestry material for markets. This study modelled the species distribution under current conditions and climate change scenarios of five Timber Forest Species (TFS) in the Amazonas Department, northeastern Peru. Modelling was conducted with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) using 26 environmental variables. Of the total distribution under current conditions of Cedrelinga cateniformis, Ceiba pentandra, Apuleia leiocarpa, Cariniana decandra and Cedrela montana, 34.64% (2985.51 km2), 37.96% (2155.86 km2), 35.34% (2132.57 km2), 33.30% (1848.51 km2), and 35.81% (6125.44 km2), respectively, correspond to degraded areas and, therefore, there is restoration potential with these species. By 2050 and 2070, all TFS are projected to change their distribution compared to their current ranges, regardless of whether it will be an expansion and/or a contraction. Consequently, this methodology is intended to guide the economic and ecological success of forest plantations in reducing areas degraded by deforestation or similar activities.