Measurement of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Titers Improves the Prediction Accuracy of COVID-19 Maximum Severity by Machine Learning in Non-Vaccinated Patients

Numerous studies have suggested that the titers of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are associated with the COVID-19 severity, however, the types of antibodies associated with the disease maximum severity and the timing at which the associations are best observed, especially within one week after symptom onset, remain controversial. We attempted to elucidate the antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 that are associated with the maximum severity of COVID-19 in the early phase of the disease, and to investigate whether antibody testing might contribute to prediction of the disease maximum severity in COVID-19 patients. We classified the patients into four groups according to the disease maximum severity (severity group 1 (did not require oxygen supplementation), severity group 2a (required oxygen supplementation at low flow rates), severity group 2b (required oxygen supplementation at relatively high flow rates), and severity group 3 (required mechanical ventilatory support)), and serially measured the titers of IgM, IgG, and IgA against the nucleocapsid protein, spike protein, and receptor-binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 until day 12 after symptom onset. The titers of all the measured antibody responses were higher in severity group 2b and 3, especially severity group 2b, as early as at one week after symptom onset. Addition of data obtained from antibody testing improved the ability of analysis models constructed using a machine learning technique to distinguish severity group 2b and 3 from severity group 1 and 2a. These models constructed with non-vaccinated COVID-19 patients could not be applied to the cases of breakthrough infections. These results suggest that antibody testing might help physicians identify non-vaccinated COVID-19 patients who are likely to require admission to an intensive care unit.