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Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
- Source :
- Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Nature Portfolio, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Newly emerged pathogens are inherently difficult to forecast, due to many unknowns about their biology early in an epidemic. Here, the authors assess forecasts of a suite of models during the Zika epidemic in Colombia, finding that the models that performed best changed over the course of the epidemic.
- Subjects :
- Science
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20411723
- Volume :
- 12
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Directory of Open Access Journals
- Journal :
- Nature Communications
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- edsdoj.817814baca3456fbcbefb36156a6489
- Document Type :
- article
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25695-0