Integrated modelling of the determinants of household food insecurity during the 2020–2021 COVID-19 lockdown in Uganda

Abstract Background The determinants of household food insecurity (HFI) do not act in isolation, and are known to be complex, stochastic, nonlinear, and multidimensional. Despite this being especially true in periods of shocks, studies that focus on integrated modelling of the HFI determinants during the COVID-19 lockdown are scarce, with no available evidence on Uganda. The main objective of this study was to develop Bayesian belief network (BBN) models to analyse, rank, and illustrate the conceptual reasoning, and complex causal relationships among the determinants of HFI during the COVID-19 lockdown. This study was based on seven rounds of Uganda’s High-Frequency Phone Surveys data sets collected during the lockdown. A total of 15,032 households, 17 independent determinants of HFI, and 8 food security indicators were used in this study. Metrics of sensitivity, and prediction performance were used to evaluate models’ accuracy. Results Eight BBN models were developed for each food insecurity indicator. The accuracy rates of the models ranged between 70.5% and 93.5%, with an average accuracy rate of 78.5%, indicating excellent predictive performance in identifying the determinants of HFI correctly. Our results revealed that approximately 42.2% of the sampled households (n = 15,032) in Uganda were worried about not having enough food. An estimated 25.2% of the respondents reported skipping a meal, while 32.1% reported consuming less food. Less than 20% of the households experienced food shortage, hunger, or having nothing to eat. Overall, 30.6% of the households were food insecure during the lockdown. The top five ranked determinants of HFI were identified as follows: (1) households’ inability to produce enough food; (2) households’ inability to buy food; (3) reduced household income; (4) limited cash assistance, and (5) households’ inability to stock adequate food supplies. Conclusions Ranking, rather than the statistical significance of the determinants of HFI, is crucial as an approach to applied research, as it helps stakeholders determine how to allocate resources for targeted interventions within the constraints of limited funding. These findings emphasize the importance of intervening on the most highly ranked determinants of HFI to enhance the resilience of local food systems, and households’ capacity to cope with recurring and unforeseen shocks.