Viscoelastic stress change from the 1931 MW7.8 Fuyun earthquake and its impacts on seismic activity around the Altai mountains

The 1931 MW7.8 Fuyun earthquake occurred around the Altai mountains, an intracontinental deformation belt with limited active strain-rate accumulation. To explore whether seismic activity in this deformation belt was affected by stress interaction among different active faults, we calculate the Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) induced by the Fuyun earthquake due to coseismic deformation of the elastic crust and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. Numerical results show that the total ΔCFS at a 10-km depth produced by the Fuyun earthquake attains approximately 0.015–0.134 bar near the epicenter, and just before the occurrence of the 2003 MW7.2 Chuya earthquake, which distances about 400 km away from the Fuyun earthquake. Among the increased ΔCFS, viscoelastic relaxation from 1931 to 2003 contributes to approximately 0.014–0.131 bar, accounting for >90% of the total ΔCFS. More importantly, we find that for the recorded seismicity in the region with a radius of about 270 km to the Fuyun earthquake from 1970 to 2018, the percentage of earthquakes that fall in positive lobes of ΔCFS resolved on the NNW-SSE Fuyun strike-slip fault, on the NWW-SEE Irtysh strike-slip fault, and on the NW-SE Kurti reverse fault is up to 67.22%–91.36%. Therefore, the predicted ΔCFS suggests that the impact of the 1931 MW7.8 Fuyun earthquake on seismic activity around the Altai mountains is still significant as to hasten occurrence of the 2003 MW7.2 Chuya earthquake at a relatively far distance and to trigger its aftershocks in the near-field even after several decades of the mainshock.