Assessment of Adequate Margin to Liquefaction for Nuclear Power Plants

Design of nuclear power plant shall provide an adequate margin to protect items ultimately necessary to prevent an early large radioactive release in the case of earthquakes exceeding those considered in the design. An essential question is how large the margin should be to be accepted as adequate. In the practice, depending on the country regulation, a plant margin of at least 1.4 or 1.67 times the design basis peak ground acceleration is required to be demonstrated. The catastrophe at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant revealed the fundamental experience that the plants designed in compliance with nuclear standards can survive the effects of the vibratory ground motion due to disastrous earthquake but may fail due to effects of phenomena accompanying or generated by the earthquakes. Liquefaction is one of those secondary effects of beyond-design basis earthquakes that should be investigated for NPPs at soil sites. However, the question has not been investigated up to now, whether a “margin earthquake”, vibratory effects of which the plant can withstand thanks to design margin, will not induce liquefaction at soil sites and will not result in loss of safety functions. In the paper, a procedure is proposed for calculation of the probability and margin to liquefaction. Use of the procedure is demonstrated on a case study with realistic site-plant parameters. Criteria for probability for screening and acceptable probabilistic margin to liquefaction are proposed. The possible building settlement due to margin earthquake is also assessed.