Comparative analysis of radiomics and deep-learning algorithms for survival prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract To examine the comparative robustness of computed tomography (CT)-based conventional radiomics and deep-learning convolutional neural networks (CNN) to predict overall survival (OS) in HCC patients. Retrospectively, 114 HCC patients with pretherapeutic CT of the liver were randomized into a development (n = 85) and a validation (n = 29) cohort, including patients of all tumor stages and several applied therapies. In addition to clinical parameters, image annotations of the liver parenchyma and of tumor findings on CT were available. Cox-regression based on radiomics features and CNN models were established and combined with clinical parameters to predict OS. Model performance was assessed using the concordance index (C-index). Log-rank tests were used to test model-based patient stratification into high/low-risk groups. The clinical Cox-regression model achieved the best validation performance for OS (C-index [95% confidence interval (CI)] 0.74 [0.57–0.86]) with a significant difference between the risk groups (p = 0.03). In image analysis, the CNN models (lowest C-index [CI] 0.63 [0.39–0.83]; highest C-index [CI] 0.71 [0.49–0.88]) were superior to the corresponding radiomics models (lowest C-index [CI] 0.51 [0.30–0.73]; highest C-index [CI] 0.66 [0.48–0.79]). A significant risk stratification was not possible (p > 0.05). Under clinical conditions, CNN-algorithms demonstrate superior prognostic potential to predict OS in HCC patients compared to conventional radiomics approaches and could therefore provide important information in the clinical setting, especially when clinical data is limited.