Xanthium strumarium L., an invasive species in the subtropics: prediction of potential distribution areas and climate adaptability in Pakistan

Abstract Invasive species such as Xanthium strumarium L., can disrupt ecosystems, reduce crop yields, and degrade pastures, leading to economic losses and jeopardizing food security and biodiversity. To address the challenges posed by invasive species such as X. strumarium, this study uses species distribution modeling (SDM) to map its potential distribution in Pakistan and assess how it might respond to climate change. This addresses the urgent need for proactive conservation and management strategies amidst escalating ecological threats. SDM forecasts a species’ potential dispersion across various geographies in both space and time by correlating known species occurrences to environmental variables. SDMs have the potential to help address the challenges posed by invasive species by predicting the future habitat suitability of species distributions and identifying the environmental factors influencing these distributions. Our study shows that seasonal temperature dependence, mean temperature of wettest quarter and total nitrogen content of soil are important climatic factors influencing habitat suitability of X. strumarium. The potential habitat of this invasive species is likely to expand beyond the areas it currently colonizes, with a notable presence in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions. These areas are particularly vulnerable due to threats to agriculture and biodiversity. Under current conditions, an estimated 21% of Pakistan’s land area is infested by X. strumarium, mainly in upper Punjab, central Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The range is expected to expand in most regions except Sindh. The central and northeastern parts of the country are proving to be particularly suitable habitats for X. strumarium. Effective strategies are crucial to contain the spread of X. strumarium. The MaxEnt modeling approach generates invasion risk maps by identifying potential risk zones based on a species’ climate adaptability. These maps can aid in early detection, allowing authorities to prioritize surveillance and management strategies for controlling the spread of invasive species in suitable habitats. However, further research is recommended to understand the adaptability of species to unexplored environments.