The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on conflict and health system–related violent events in Libya: An interrupted time series analysis

As a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Nations Security Council passed resolution S/RES2532 (2020), requesting the cessation of hostilities. Despite ceasefire initiatives, evidence suggests that both conflict and violent events remained unabated—and, in some cases, escalated during the first months of the pandemic. This study uses interrupted time series analyses to examine the impact of the pandemic on violent and non-violent political events—including health system-related violence—in Libya, which has been experiencing a protracted conflict since 2014. We find a reduction of approximately 21 battles (p