COVID-19 and the HIV care continuum in Uganda: minimising collateral damage [version 2; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has spread across the world within months of its first description in Wuhan, China in December 2019, resulting in an unprecedented global health emergency. Whilst Europe and North America are the current epicentres of infection, the global health community are preparing for the potential effects of this new disease on the African continent. Modelling studies predict that factors such as youthful and rural population may be protective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in the World Health Organisation (WHO) African Region, however, with 220 million infections and 4.6 million hospitalisations predicted in the first year of the pandemic alone, fragile health systems could still be placed under significant strain. Furthermore, subsequent disruptions to the provision of services for people living with HIV, or at risk of acquiring HIV, are predicted to lead to an extra 500,000 adult HIV deaths and a 2-fold increase in mother to child transmission of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020-2021. Ignoring these predictions may have severe consequences and we risk “stepping back in time” in AIDS-related deaths to numbers seen over a decade ago. Reflecting on our current experience of the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda, we explore the potential impact of public health measures implemented to mitigate spread of COVID-19 on the HIV care continuum, and suggest areas of focus for HIV services, policy makers and governments to urgently address in order to minimise the collateral damage.