Multidimensional-Based Prediction of Pressure Ulcers Development and Severity in Hospitalized Frail Oldest Old: A Retrospective Study

Silvia Ottaviani,1,2 Eleonora Rondanina,1,2 Floriana Arnone,3 Virna Brucato,3 Roberto Campigli,3 Massimo Della Bona,3 Luca Tagliafico,1,2 Ennio Ottaviani,4 Alessio Nencioni,1,2 Fiammetta Monacelli1,2 1Section of Geriatrics, Department of Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (DIMI), University of Genoa, Genoa, 16132, Italy; 2IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino, Genoa, Italy; 3ASL5 Ospedale San Bartolomeo, Sarzana, Italy; 4Department of Mathematics (DIMA), University of Genoa, Genoa, 16132, ItalyCorrespondence: Fiammetta Monacelli, Dipartimento di Medicina Interna e Specialità Mediche (D.I.M.I.) - Università degli Studi di Genova, Viale Benedetto XV, 6, Genova, GE, 16132, Italy, Tel/Fax +39-010-353-7545, Email fiammetta.monacelli@unige.itPurpose: In recent times, growing uncertainty has emerged regarding the effectiveness of standard pressure ulcer (PU) risk assessment tools, which are suspected to be no better than clinical judgment, especially in the frail and comorbid elderly population. This study aimed to identify the primary clinical predictive variables for PU development and severity in hospitalized older adults, utilizing a multidimensional frailty assessment, and compare them with the Braden scale.Patients and methods: The population consisted of 316 patients, admitted to the Geriatric Unit and Transitional Care of San Bartolomeo Hospital in Sarzana (Italy) during the period 21/02/22-01/07/22. The collected information included both anamnestic and laboratory data. A comprehensive geriatric assessment was performed, including also anthropometric and physical performance measurements. Multivariate logistic analysis was used, both in a binary classification test and in the subsequent ordinal classification test of severity levels. The final performance of the model was assessed by ROC curve estimation and AUC comparison with the Braden scale.Results: Within the population, 152 subjects (48%) developed PU at different levels of severity. The results showed that age, Braden scale (subscales of mobility and friction/shear), Barthel scale, Mini Nutritional Assessment, hemoglobin, and albumin are predictors associated with the development of PU (AUC 85%). The result is an improvement over the use of the Braden scale alone (AUC 75%). Regarding the identification of predictive factors for PU severity, 4AT also emerges as potentially relevant.Conclusion: Assessing the subject’s nutritional status, physical performance, and functional autonomies enables the effective integration of the Braden scale in identifying patients most susceptible to developing PU. Our findings support the integration of a comprehensive set of methodologically robust frailty determinants into traditional risk assessment tools. This integration reflects the mutual interplay between patients’ frailty, skin frailty, and PU development in very old hospitalized patients.Keywords: chronic wounds, nutrition, pressure injury, health analytics, precision medicine, chronic diseases