Migration risk of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) from North Africa to Southern Europe

With the development of globalization and agriculture trade, as well as its own strong migratory capacity, fall armyworm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda) (J.E. Smith) has invaded more than 70 countries, posing a serious threat to the production of major crops in these areas. FAW has now also been detected in Egypt in North Africa, putting Europe, which is separated from it only by the Mediterranean Sea, at high risk of invasion. Therefore, this study integrated multiple factors of insect source, host plant, and environment to provide a risk analysis of the potential trajectories and time periods of migration of FAW into Europe in 2016~2022. First, the CLIMEX model was used to predict the annual and seasonal suitable distribution of FAW. The HYSPLIT numerical trajectory model was then used to simulate the possibility of the FAW invasion of Europe through wind-driven dispersal. The results showed that the risk of FAW invasion between years was highly consistent (P