KETERANGKUMAN KEWANGAN DAN PERTUMBUHAN FIRMA DI MALAYSIA DAN INDONESIA: ANALISIS REGRESI AMBANG (Financial Inclusion and Firm Growth in Malaysia and Indonesia: A Threshold Regression Analysis)

Kertas ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji kesan keterangkuman kewangan terhadap pertumbuhan firma dalam kalangan firma kecil, sederhana dan besar (275 buah firma) di negara Malaysia dan Indonesia dengan menggunakan teknik penganggaran regresi ambang keratan rentas. Tahap keterangkuman kewangan diukur berdasarkan agihan perkhidmatan kewangan merentasi firma iaitu akses kepada kredit. Keputusan kajian mendapati wujud kesan tidak monotonik dalam hubungan antara keterangkuman kewangan dan pertumbuhan firma, yang mana kesan keterangkuman kewangan terhadap pertumbuhan firma hanya signifikan dan positif di bawah tahap ambang. Implikasi dasar daripada kajian ini mencadangkan pemilik firma dan institusi kewangan perlu mengekang pengagihan akses kepada kredit supaya berada dalam lingkungan nilai optimum atau tahap ambang untuk menjamin pertumbuhan firma. Abstract This paper aims to investigate the effects of financial inclusion on the firms’ growth from selected small, medium and large firms (275 firms) in Malaysia and Indonesia countries using a cross section threshold estimation technique. The levels of financial inclusion across firms were measured based on the distribution of financial services across the selected firms (access to credit). This paper reveals that there is a non-monotonic effect in the financial inclusion-firm’s growth nexus in which the impact of financial inclusion on firm growth is significantly positive below a certain threshold point. The main finding suggest that the firms’ owners and banking institutions should restrict the distribution of credit access within the optimum value or threshold level in promoting the growth of the firms. Keywords: Financial inclusion; firm growth; threshold estimation.