Network structures and mitigation potential of trade linked global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract Since agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, accurately calculating these emissions is essential for simultaneously addressing climate change and food security challenges. This paper explores the critical role of trade in transferring agricultural greenhouse gas (AGHG) emissions throughout global agricultural supply chains. We develop a detailed AGHG emission inventory with comprehensive coverage across a wide range of countries and emission sources at first. Utilizing this inventory, the multi-regional input-output analysis is integrated with the complex network analysis to specifically reveal the characteristics of global AGHG flow networks. Finally, scenario analyses reflecting current trends and policy changes in global agriculture are conducted to investigate the emission reduction potential of different networks. The results show that the community division and characteristics of different AGHG networks vary, with more communities in the rice-CH4 and livestock-CH4, N2O networks, and fewer in the cropland-N2O network. Production-side technology improvements (reducing direct carbon emission intensities) and consumption-side livestock products substitution can contribute to the reduction of global AGHG emissions. At the same time, these impacts may propagate to other countries through AGHG networks. In contrast, localization substitution has minimal impact on AGHG emissions and may even result in slight negative effects. It is suggested that enhancing cooperation between countries from a network perspective, such as strengthening the transfer of advanced production technologies within communities, could help reconceptualize global agricultural decarbonization.