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A Predicted Pause in the Rapid Warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the Coming Decade
- Source :
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 17, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
- Publication Year :
- 2024
- Publisher :
- Wiley, 2024.
-
Abstract
- Abstract The capability to anticipate the exceptionally rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf and its evolution over the next decade could enable effective mitigation for coastal communities and marine resources. However, global climate models have struggled to accurately predict this warming due to limited resolution; and past regional downscaling efforts focused on multiādecadal projections, neglecting predictive skill associated with internal variability. We address these gaps with a high resolution (1/12°) ensemble of dynamically downscaled decadal predictions. The downscaled simulations accurately predicted past oceanic variability at scales relevant to marine resource management, with skill typically exceeding global coarseāresolution predictions. Over the long term, warming of the Shelf is projected to continue; however, we forecast a temporary warming pause in the next decade. This predicted pause is attributed to internal variability associated with a transient, moderate strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19448007 and 00948276
- Volume :
- 51
- Issue :
- 17
- Database :
- Directory of Open Access Journals
- Journal :
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- edsdoj.726162db5da440ea8165df20b10a9e69
- Document Type :
- article
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110946