Four-years change of BMI and waist circumference are associated with metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and elderly Chinese

Abstract The purpose of the study was to determine whether changes in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in middle-aged and elderly Chinese are associated with metabolic syndrome. In this cohort investigation, 3697 middle-aged and elderly people aged 45 or over were recruited from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (2005) defined metabolic syndrome (MetS). With Cox regression analysis, we calculated hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for MetS based on BMI-WC change categories. To assess the prevalence of MetS, the changes in BMI and WC levels were classified into four quartiles based on their relative and absolute changes. In subjects whose BMI and WC decreased (HR = 0.338; 95% CIs 0.264, 0.433) as well as those whose BMI increased and their WC decreased (HR = 0.375; 95% CIs 0.228, 0.499), metabolic syndrome risk was significantly lower compared with those with increases in both BMI and WC. Regarding the absolute changes in BMI, the lowest percentile of BMI was significantly lower in both males (HR = 0.302; 95% CIs 0.204, 0.448) and females (HR = 0.486; 95% CIs 0.354, 0.667) for the risk of metabolic syndrome. Similar results were observed in the absolute changes in WC, with the lowest quantile of WC having a significant impact on MetS risk in males (HR = 0.170; 95% CIs 0.107, 0.270) and females (HR = 0.303; 95% CIs 0.217, 0.424). The risk of metabolic syndrome was significantly associated with changes in BMI and WC in middle-aged and elderly Chinese. A reduced BMI and WC are associated with lower metabolic syndrome risks in middle-aged and elderly people.