Personalized CT-based radiomics nomogram preoperative predicting Ki-67 expression in gastrointestinal stromal tumors: a multicenter development and validation cohort

Abstract Background and Aim To develop and validate radiomic prediction models using contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) to preoperatively predict Ki-67 expression in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). Method A total of 339 GIST patients from four centers were categorized into the training, internal validation, and external validation cohort. By filtering unstable features, minimum redundancy, maximum relevance, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm, a radiomic signature was built to predict the malignant potential of GISTs. Individual nomograms of Ki-67 expression incorporating the radiomic signature or clinical factors were developed using the multivariate logistic model and evaluated regarding its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. Results The radiomic signature, consisting of 6 radiomic features had AUC of 0.787 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.632–0.801], 0.765 (95% CI 0.683–0.847), and 0.754 (95% CI 0.666–0.842) in the prediction of high Ki-67 expression in the training, internal validation and external validation cohort, respectively. The radiomic nomogram including the radiomic signature and tumor size demonstrated significant calibration, and discrimination with AUC of 0.801 (95% CI 0.726–0.876), 0.828 (95% CI 0.681–0.974), and 0.784 (95% CI 0.701–0.868) in the training, internal validation and external validation cohort respectively. Based on the Decision curve analysis, the radiomics nomogram was found to be clinically significant and useful. Conclusions The radiomic signature from CE-CT was significantly associated with Ki-67 expression in GISTs. A nomogram consisted of radiomic signature, and tumor size had maximum accuracy in the prediction of Ki-67 expression in GISTs. Results from our study provide vital insight to make important preoperative clinical decisions.