Hospitalization for heart failure incidence according to the transition in metabolic health and obesity status: a nationwide population-based study

Abstract Background We aimed to investigate the hazard of hospitalization for heart failure (hHF) according to the transitions in metabolic health and obesity status. Methods The Korean National Health Insurance Service datasets from 2002 to 2017 were used for this nationwide, longitudinal, population-based study. The hazard of hHF was analyzed according to the eight groups stratified by stability in metabolic health and transition in obesity status among initially metabolically healthy adults who underwent two cycles of health examinations in 2009–2010 and 2013–2014 (N = 7,148,763). Results During two examinations, 48.43% of the initially metabolically healthy obese (MHO) individuals and 20.94% of the initially metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) individuals showed changes in their metabolic health and obesity status. During a mean follow-up of 3.70 years, 3151 individuals were hospitalized for HF. When stable MHNO individuals were set as the reference, transition to metabolically unhealthy phenotype was associated with an increased hazard of hHF; the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) in the individuals who transformed from MHO to metabolically unhealthy non-obese was 2.033 (1.579–2.616). The constant MHO group had a 17.3% increased hazard of hHF compared with the stable MHNO group [HR (95% CI) 1.173 (1.039–1.325)]. Individuals who shifted from MHO to MHNO showed a 34.3% lower hazard of hHF compared with those who maintained the MHO category [HR (95% CI) 0.657 (0.508–0.849)]. Conclusion Dynamic changes in metabolic health and obesity status were observed during a relatively short interval of 3–5 years. Loss of metabolic health was significantly associated with an increased hazard of hHF. Even if metabolic health was maintained, persistent obesity remained as a risk factor for hHF, and transition from MHO to MHNO had a protective effect against hHF. Therefore, the prevention and control of obesity while maintaining metabolic health would be crucial in preventing hHF.