Does Land Urbanization Affect the Catch-Up Effect of Carbon Emissions Reduction in China’s Logistics?

Logistics is playing an important role in China with the rapid growth of the digital economy, and has caused large quantities of carbon emissions as an energy-intensive industry. Due to the extreme imbalance of land urbanization, the performance of carbon emissions reduction in logistics is significantly different among regions. This paper establishes a new indicator to describe the carbon emissions catch-up effect and decomposes the impact of land urbanization into 4 driving factors, thereby identifying the impact of land urbanization on carbon emissions catch-up effect in detail. The results indicate that: (1) at the national level, the catch-up effect of carbon emissions in logistics showed three stages of “catching up-lagging behind-catching up”, which was consistent with the development of logistics. (2) At the regional level, the land urbanization-related factors had significant but different impacts on the catch-up effect of carbon emissions. The spatial expansion and road network density effect were the main inhibitors for catch-up effect of the eastern region, and spatial structure effect was the main inhibitor for central and western regions. (3) At the provincial level, the impact of land urbanization-related factors on provinces at different development stages was different. Finally, some policy implications are proposed to achieve carbon neutrality targets.