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Nomogram to Predict Left Atrial Thrombus or Spontaneous Echo Contrast in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation

Authors :
Zhitong Li
Quanbo Liu
Fei Liu
Tesfaldet H. Hidru
Yuqi Tang
Tao Cong
Lianjun Gao
Xiaolei Yang
Yunlong Xia
Source :
Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine, Vol 8 (2021)
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
Frontiers Media S.A., 2021.

Abstract

Background: The predictive power of the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for the presence of Left atrial thrombus (LAT)/ spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is modest. The aim of this analysis is to define clinical and ultrasonic variables associated with LAT/SEC and to propose nomograms for individual risk prediction.Methods: Data on 1,813 consecutive NVAF patients who underwent transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) from January 2016 to January 2021 were collected. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to construct a nomogram. We examined the predictive ability of the risk scores by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Moreover, the performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness.Results: LAT/SEC was found in 260 (21.0%) and 124 (21.6%) patients in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. On multivariate analysis, independent factors for LAT/SEC were Age, left atrial diameter (LAD), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), hypertension (HTN), previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, Non-paroxysmal AF and a nomogram was built based on these variables. The calibration curve for the probability of LAT/SEC showed good prediction agreement with actual observation. The nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.836 and 0.794 in predicting LAT/SEC in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram would be clinically useful.Conclusions: In this study, a nomogram was constructed that incorporated six characteristics of NVAF patients. The nomogram may be of great value for the prediction of LAT/SEC in NVAF patients.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
2297055X
Volume :
8
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.6eb185d1c1504e94871f0791c52121af
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3389/fcvm.2021.737551