Data-driven approach to spatiotemporal dynamic risk assessment of urban flooding based on shared socio-economic pathways

Driven by the change in intense land use and land cover (LULC) due to fast urbanization, urban flooding events have become the most frequent and influential hazards over the last few decades. Accurately predicting possible flood-prone locations under the dynamic fluctuations of LULC is crucial for sustainable urban development. However, there has been sparse studies on systematic integration of LULC changes into anticipate urban development scenarios coupled with flooding vulnerability assessment. Therefore, this study proposed a robust and powerful cascade modeling chain consisting of Maximum Entropy, System Dynamics and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation in combination with shared socio-economic pathways for projecting temporal and spatial dynamic changes associated with urban flooding vulnerability. Taking Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as case study, the results showed that the increase in urban flooding was largely caused by the expansion of construction land. Overall, a substantial distinction within the scenarios was observed and the flooding vulnerability was ranked in the order of SSP126