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A single risk assessment for the most common diseases of ageing, developed and validated on 10 cohort studies

Authors :
Md Hamidul Huque
Scherazad Kootar
Kim M. Kiely
Craig S. Anderson
Martin van Boxtel
Henry Brodaty
Perminder S. Sachdev
Michelle Carlson
Annette L. Fitzpatrick
Rachel A. Whitmer
Miia Kivipelto
Louisa Jorm
Sebastian Köhler
Nicola T. Lautenschlager
Oscar L. Lopez
Jonathan E. Shaw
Fiona E. Matthews
Ruth Peters
Kaarin J. Anstey
Source :
BMC Medicine, Vol 22, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2024)
Publication Year :
2024
Publisher :
BMC, 2024.

Abstract

Abstract Background We aimed to develop risk tools for dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and diabetes, for adults aged ≥ 65 years using shared risk factors. Methods Data were obtained from 10 population-based cohorts (N = 41,755) with median follow-up time (years) for dementia, stroke, MI, and diabetes of 6.2, 7.0, 6.8, and 7.4, respectively. Disease-free participants at baseline were included, and 22 risk factors (sociodemographic, medical, lifestyle, laboratory biomarkers) were evaluated. Two risk tools (DemNCD and DemNCD-LR based on Fine and Gray sub-distribution and logistic regression [LR], respectively) were developed and validated. Predictive accuracies of these risk tools were assessed using Harrel’s C-statistics and area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Model calibration was conducted using Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test along calibration plots. Results Both the DemNCD and DemNCD-LR resulted in similar predictive accuracy for each outcome. The overall AUC (95% CI) for dementia, stroke, MI, and diabetes risk tool were 0·68 (0·65, 0·70), 0·58 (0·54, 0·61), 0·65 (0·61, 0·68), and 0·68 (0·64, 0·72), respectively, for males. For females, these figures were 0·65 (0·63, 0·67), 0·55 (0·52, 0·57), 0·65 (0·62, 0·68), and 0·61 (0·57, 0·65). Conclusions The DemNCD is the first tool to predict both dementia and multiple cardio-metabolic diseases using comprehensive risk factors and provided similar predictive accuracy to existing risk tools. It has similar predictive accuracy as tools designed for single outcomes in this age-group. DemNCD has the potential to be used in community and clinical settings as it includes self-reported and routinely available clinical measures.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
17417015
Volume :
22
Issue :
1
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
BMC Medicine
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.6e1671c0034757a51e4b8545b5d355
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-024-03711-6