Assessing the impact of global carbon dioxide changes on atmospheric fluctuations in Iran through satellite data analysis

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2), a significant greenhouse gas, drives climate change, influencing temperature, rainfall, and the hydrologic cycle. This alters precipitation patterns, intensifies storms, and changes drought frequency and timing of floods, impacting ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and societies globally. Understanding how global CO2 fluctuations impact regional atmospheric CO2 levels can inform mitigation strategies and Facilitate water resources management. The study investigates how global CO2 fluctuations affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations (XCO2) in Iran from 2015 to 2020, aiming to inform mitigation strategies against climate change. XCO2 data OCO-2 satellite and CO2 surface flux data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) were analyzed. Over the 6 years, XCO2 in Iran increased steadily by 12.66 ppm, mirroring global rises. However, Iran's CO2 surface flux decreased, with slight increases in anthropogenic emissions but decreased natural and total fluxes. Monthly patterns of XCO2 and surface flux exhibited variations, with XCO2 reaching its zenith in spring and dipping to its lowest point during summer, while surface flux peaked during the summer months. The results reveal a significant discrepancy between Iran's surface CO2 flux and atmospheric XCO2 trends. While Iran's anthropogenic emissions increased barely from 2015–2020, its natural and total CO2 fluxes decreased. However, XCO2 increased steadily over this period, indicating the dominant impact of global rather than local factors on Iran's XCO2. Curbing worldwide greenhouse gas output is imperative to disrupt the current trajectory of climate change. Reporting CO2 levels can inform climate mitigation plans, reducing emissions to combat global warming and minimize global impacts on the hydrologic cycle. HIGHLIGHTS Global CO2 changes significantly impacted atmospheric CO2 levels in Iran from 2015–2020.; Atmospheric CO2 in Iran increased 12.66 ppm despite decreases in natural CO2 fluxes.; The discrepancy between surface flux and atmospheric CO2 trends indicates global dominance.; Emphasizes the critical role of global CO2 changes over local emissions.;