PROJECTING THE ORDER OF MILITARY MERIT POPULATION. AN APPLICATION OF THE COHORTCOMPONENT METHOD

In 1972 the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) created the Order of Military Merit (Order) to honor members who have demonstrated conspicuous merit and exceptional service. Despite efforts to ensure appointments to the Order were representative of the entire CAF, a 2007 study found that appointments had become concentrated at senior ranks. In response to this study, new nomination guidelines were released in 2007 and then augmented in 2010. The 2010 guidelines yielded some early positive results; however, the average years of service (YOS) at appointment target has not been met. The Order’s advisory council requested a population forecast of the Order to determine the impact on the size and YOS profile of the serving Order population if the typical YOS at appointment is reduced to 18 to 23 years. This paper presents the methodology used to model the Order population and discusses the impact of appointing members to the Order earlier in their career.