Epidemiological transition in morbidity: 10-year data from emergency consultations in Dakar, Senegal

Background It is thought that low-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition from infectious to non-communicable diseases; however, this phenomenon is yet to be examined with long-term data on morbidity.Methods We performed a prospective evaluation of all emergency medical consultations at a major emergency service provider in Dakar, Senegal from 2005 to 2014. Using standardised definitions, the primary diagnosis for each consultation was classified using the International Classification of Diseases-10 and then broadly categorised as ‘infectious’, ‘non-communicable’ and ‘other’ diseases. Morbidity rates for each year in the 10-year observation period were plotted to depict the epidemiological transition over time. To quantify the yearly rate ratios of non-communicable over infectious diagnosis, we used a generalised Poisson mixed model.Results Complete data were obtained from 49 702 visits by African patients. The mean age was 36.5±23.2 and 34.8±24.3 years for women and men, respectively. Overall, infections accounted for 46.3% and 42.9% and non-communicable conditions 32.2% and 40.1% of consultations in women and men, respectively. Consultation for non-communicable compared with infectious conditions increased by 7% every year (95% CI: 5% to 9%; p