A stochastic vs deterministic perspective on the timing of cellular events

Abstract Cells are the fundamental units of life, and like all life forms, they change over time. Changes in cell state are driven by molecular processes; of these many are initiated when molecule numbers reach and exceed specific thresholds, a characteristic that can be described as “digital cellular logic”. Here we show how molecular and cellular noise profoundly influence the time to cross a critical threshold—the first-passage time—and map out scenarios in which stochastic dynamics result in shorter or longer average first-passage times compared to noise-less dynamics. We illustrate the dependence of the mean first-passage time on noise for a set of exemplar models of gene expression, auto-regulatory feedback control, and enzyme-mediated catalysis. Our theory provides intuitive insight into the origin of these effects and underscores two important insights: (i) deterministic predictions for cellular event timing can be highly inaccurate when molecule numbers are within the range known for many cells; (ii) molecular noise can significantly shift mean first-passage times, particularly within auto-regulatory genetic feedback circuits.