Assessing the validity of METS-IR for predicting the future onset of diabetes: an analysis using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics

Abstract Background The Metabolic Insulin Resistance Score (METS-IR) is a non-invasive proxy for insulin resistance (IR) that has been newly developed in recent years and has been shown to be associated with diabetes risk. Our aim was to assess the predictive value of METS-IR for the future development of diabetes and its temporal differences in people of different sex, age, and body mass index (BMI). Methods The current study included 15,453 baseline non-diabetic subjects in the NAGALA cohort and then grouped according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommended criteria for age and BMI. Multivariate Cox regression and time-dependent receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves were used to analyze the value of METS-IR in assessing and predicting the risk of diabetes in people of different sexes, ages, and BMIs. Results 373 individuals developed diabetes during the observation period. By multivariate COX regression analysis, the development of future diabetes was significantly associated with increased METS-IR, and this positive association was stronger in women than in men and in individuals