Predictors of long-term mortality in older patients with hip fractures managed by hemiarthroplasty: a 10-year study based on a population registry in Saxony, Germany

Abstract Background Mortality of patients with a femoral neck fracture is high, especially within the first year after surgery, but also remains elevated thereafter. The aim of this study was to identify factors potentially associated with long-term mortality in patients homogeneously treated with hemiarthroplasty for femoral neck fracture. Methods This retrospective cohort study was performed at a single level 1 national trauma center at the university hospital of Leipzig (Saxony, Germany). The study time-window was January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020. Primary outcome measure was mortality depending on individual patient-related characteristics and perioperative risk factors. Inclusion criteria was a low-energy femoral neck fracture (Garden I-IV) in geriatric patients 60 years of age or older that were primarily treated with bipolar hemiarthroplasty. Date of death or actual residence of patients alive was obtained from the population register of the eastern German state of Saxony, Germany. The outcome was tested using the log-rank test and plotted using Kaplan-Meier curves. Unadjusted and adjusted for other risk factors such as sex and age, hazard ratios were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models and presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results The 458 included patients had a median age of 83 (IQR 77–89) years, 346 (75%) were female and 113 (25%) male patients. Mortality rates after 30 days, 1, 5 and 10 years were 13%, 25%, 60% and 80%, respectively. Multivariate regression analysis revealed age (HR = 1.1; p