Monitoring and Forecasting of Coastal Erosion in the Context of Climate Change in Saint Louis (Senegal)

Owing to its unique physical and socio-economic characteristics, the Saint Louis region stands out as one of the most susceptible areas in Senegal to the adverse impacts of coastal erosion. The dynamics of erosion in this region are significantly influenced by the Langue de Barbarie (LB), a sand spit formed at the mouth of the Senegal River. Initially, in 2003, a 4 m wide artificial breach was strategically introduced to mitigate flooding; however, sediment dynamics expanded it to 6 km by 2020, thereby affecting the entire region. This study delves into the coastline change of the LB, specifically divided into three zones (LB-1, LB-2, and LB-3), spanning the period from 1994 to 2042. Leveraging Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques, our investigation reveals that, prior to the breach’s creation, the average dynamic coastline rates in zones LB-1, LB-2, and LB-3 were estimated at 4.4, 5.9, and 4.4 m/year, respectively. Subsequent to the breach, these rates shifted to −1.2, 8.4, and −2.7 m/year, with the most significant erosion observed alongshore of LB-3 at −6.6 m/year during the period 2002–2012. Projecting into 2032, LB-1 and LB-3 are anticipated to experience erosion rates of −11.5 and −26.8 m/year, respectively, while the LB-2 records an estimated accretion rate of 8.41 m/year. Eroded areas are expected to total 571,458 m2, while accumulated areas are expected to total 67,191 m2. By 2042, zones LB-1, LB-2, and LB-3 are expected to experience erosion rates of −23 and −53.6 m/year, resulting in the erosion of 1,021,963 m2 and the accumulation of 94,930 m2 with a dynamic rate of 168.2 m/year in zone LB-3. These results have significant implications for solving the urgent issue of coastal erosion in LB.