How to quantify factors degrading DNA in the environment and predict degradation for effective sampling design

Abstract Extra‐organismal DNA (eoDNA) from material left behind by organisms (noninvasive DNA, e.g., feces, hair) or from environmental samples (eDNA, e.g., water, soil) is a valuable source of genetic information. However, the relatively low quality and quantity of eoDNA, which can be further degraded by environmental factors, results in reduced amplification and sequencing success. This is often compensated for through cost‐ and time‐intensive replications of genotyping/sequencing procedures. Therefore, system‐ and site‐specific quantifications of environmental degradation are needed to maximize sampling efficiency (e.g., fewer replicates, shorter sampling durations), and to improve species detection and abundance estimates. Using 10 environmentally diverse bat roosts as a case study, we developed a robust modeling pipeline to quantify the environmental factors degrading eoDNA, predict eoDNA quality, and estimate sampling‐site‐specific ideal exposure duration. Maximum humidity was the strongest eoDNA‐degrading factor, followed by exposure duration and then maximum temperature. We also found a positive effect when hottest days occurred later. The strength of this effect fell between the strength of the effects of exposure duration and maximum temperature. With those predictors and information on sampling period (before or after offspring were born), we reliably predicted mean eoDNA quality per sampling visit at new sites with a mean squared error of 0.0349. Site‐specific simulations revealed that reducing exposure duration to 2–8 days could substantially improve eoDNA quality for future sampling. Our pipeline identified high humidity and temperature as strong drivers of eoDNA degradation even in the absence of rain and direct sunlight. Furthermore, we outline the pipeline's utility for other systems and study goals, such as estimating sample age, improving eDNA‐based species detection, and increasing the accuracy of abundance estimates.