Predicting suitable habitat for the Critically Endangered African wild ass Equus africanus in the Danakil Desert of Eritrea

The Critically Endangered African wild ass Equus africanus is one of the most threatened equids, with fewer than 400 individuals persisting in the Danakil Desert (Eritrea), and fewer than 600 globally. To effectively conserve the species, it is essential to determine the extent of available suitable habitats and understand the environmental factors that most influence its current distribution. During 2016–2019 we observed African wild asses, recorded their locations during both the wet and dry seasons and analysed the bioclimatic data and topography using the maximum entropy species distribution model. Distance from water sources and precipitation of the driest month were the top predictors of suitable habitat for the dry season, whereas seasonal temperature variability and precipitation during the warmest quarter were the top predictors for the wet season. Model performances were high, with area under the curve values of 0.97 and 0.98 for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. In the Danakil Desert of Eritrea, the extent of optimal habitat for African wild asses is estimated to be 130 km2 in the dry season and 739 km2 in the wet season, with a potential range of 11,000 km2 for both seasons. Our model results also indicate that in the dry season 89 km2 of the Messir Plateau is optimal habitat, and the entire plateau area of 124 km2 provides optimal habitat during the wet season. These findings provide wildlife management authorities with substantive information and rationale for the establishment of a protected area on the Messir Plateau for African wild asses in Eritrea.