Intermittent fasting and changes in clinical risk scores: Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial

Background: Intermittent fasting may increase longevity and lower cardiometabolic risk. This study evaluated whether fasting modifies clinical risk scores for mortality [i.e., Intermountain Mortality Risk Score (IMRS)] or chronic diseases [e.g., Pooled Cohort Risk Equations (PCRE), Intermountain Chronic Disease score (ICHRON)]. Methods and results: Subjects (N = 71) completing the WONDERFUL trial were aged 21–70 years, had ≥1 metabolic syndrome criteria, elevated cholesterol, and no anti-diabetes medications, statins, or chronic diseases. The intermittent fasting arm underwent 24-h water-only fasting twice-per-week for 4 weeks and once-per-week for 22 weeks (26 weeks total). Analyses examined the IMRS change score at 26 weeks vs. baseline between intermittent fasting (n = 38) and ad libitum controls (n = 33), and change scores for PCRE, ICHRON, HOMA-IR, and a metabolic syndrome score (MSS). Age averaged 49 years; 65% were female. Intermittent fasting increased IMRS (0.78 ± 2.14 vs. controls: −0.61 ± 2.56; p = 0.010) but interacted with baseline IMRS (p-interaction = 0.010) to reduce HOMA-IR (but not MSS) more in subjects with higher baseline IMRS (median HOMA-IR change: fasters, −0.95; controls, +0.05) vs. lower baseline IMRS (−0.29 vs. −0.32, respectively). Intermittent fasting reduced ICHRON (−0.92 ± 2.96 vs. 0.58 ± 3.07; p = 0.035) and tended to reduce PCRE (−0.20 ± 0.22 vs. −0.14 ± 0.21; p = 0.054). Conclusions: Intermittent fasting increased 1-year IMRS mortality risk, but decreased 10-year chronic disease risk (PCRE and ICHRON). It also reduced HOMA-IR more in subjects with higher baseline IMRS. Increased IMRS suggests fasting may elevate short-term mortality risk as a central trigger for myriad physiological responses that elicit long-term health improvements. Increased IMRS may also reveal short-term fasting-induced safety concerns.