Innovation in unruptured intracranial aneurysm coiling: At which price or efficacy are new technologies cost-effective?

Background Unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) are increasingly being treated by endovascular coiling as opposed to open surgical clipping. Unfortunately, endovascular coiling imparts an approximate 25% recanalization rate, leading to additional procedures and increased rupture risk. While a new health technology innovation (HTI) that reduces this recanalization rate would benefit patients, few advancements have been made. We aim to determine whether cost-effectiveness has been a barrier to HTI. Methods A probabilistic Markov model was constructed from the healthcare payer perspective to compare standard endovascular treatment of UIA to standard treatment plus the addition of a HTI adjunct. Costs were measured in 2018 USD and health outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). In the base case, the HTI was a theoretical mesenchymal stem cell therapy which reduced the aneurysm recanalization rate by 50% and cost $10,000 per procedure. All other model inputs were derived from the published scientific literature. Results Based on the model results, we found that for a given HTI price (y) and relative risk reduction of aneurysm recanalization (x), the HTI was always cost-effective if the following equation was satisfied: y ≤ 20268 ∙ x, using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY. The uncertainty surrounding whether an aneurysm would recanalize was a significant driver within the model. When the uncertainty around the risk of aneurysm recanalization was eliminated, the 10-year projected additional benefit to the United States healthcare system was calculated to be $113,336,994. Conclusion Cost-effectiveness does not appear to be a barrier to innovation in reducing the recanalization rate of UIA treated by endovascular coil embolization. Our model can now be utilized by academia and industry to accentuate economically feasible HTI and by healthcare payers to calculate their maximum willingness-to-pay for a new technology. Our results also indicate that predicting a patient’s baseline risk of aneurysm recanalization is a critical area of future research.