Empirical simulation research on the impact of energy transition on the carbon peak inflection point in Zhejiang Province

[Objective] Accurately forecasting energy demand and carbon emissions is the key to realize carbon peaking and neutrality. However, how to manipulate scenario measures to change the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) inflection point, which signifies the timing of carbon peaking, remains a crucial research topic. As the forefront of China’s economy, it is of great guiding value for Zhejiang Province to explore its peak carbon dioxide emissions turning point and path. [Methods] This paper constructs a localized LEAP-Zhejiang model, designs baseline and comprehensive scenarios, and simulates energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in various sectors such as residential life, transportation, industry, agriculture, services, and energy conversion in Zhejiang Province from 2020 to 2050, and pays special attention to the impact of policies on the turning point of EKC. [Results] (1) Under the comprehensive scenario, the greenhouse gas emissions of Zhejiang Province will be greatly reduced during the forecast period compared with the baseline scenario, and will reach the peak in 2029. The emission intensity is significantly reduced to only 17.65% of the baseline scenario. This remarkable improvement is primarily attributed to the proactive transformation of the energy structure, successfully shifting from a coal and oil-dominated baseline scenario to an electricity-dominated comprehensive scenario. (2) The green energy sector sub-scenario emerges as the primary driving force for emissions reduction, delivering notable contributions through the green transformation of the energy structure. While the industrial sector remains a significant player in emissions reduction, its contribution rate is declining year by year. In contrast, the tertiary industry, particularly the transportation sector, is experiencing a steady increase in its energy-saving and emission-reduction contribution rate, showcasing a positive trend towards green transformation. (3) The popularization of new energy vehicles has been proved that it can effectively change the position of inflection point of EKC and achieve inflection point crossing, intuitively reflecting the positive effect of this measure in accelerating the arrival of carbon peaking in the province. [Conclusion] Zhejiang Province can adopt three major strategies to address climate change. Firstly, optimize the energy structure by increasing the proportion of renewable energy and constructing an intelligent energy system. Secondly, promote new energy vehicles by providing policy support and charging facilities to lead the way towards green transportation. Thirdly, enhance public environmental awareness, support carbon sequestration technologies, and encourage afforestation and low-carbon lifestyles.