Urinary Free Glycosaminoglycans Identify Adults at High Risk of Developing Early-stage High-grade Bladder Cancer

Background and objective: Screening for bladder cancer (BCa) could reduce mortality via early detection of early-stage high-grade (Ta/T1 N0 M0 grade 2–3) disease. Noninvasive biomarkers could aid in screening, but current markers lack the specificity required. The urinary free glycosaminoglycan profile (GAGome) is a promising biomarker for early detection of BCa metabolism. Methods: In a prospective case-control development study, we included patients with BCa or no evidence of disease (NED) and measured the urinary GAGome. We then developed a score to predict the probability of BCa using GAGome features that correlated with BCa versus NED according to Bayesian regression. Next, in a retrospective, population-based, case-control study, we included adults from the Lifelines Cohort Study who were presumed healthy at baseline. All cases with BCa confirmed in the cancer registry by the 2-yr or 6-yr study visit were matched to randomly selected control subjects. We developed a reference logistic regression model using age and sex to predict BCa at 7 yr after baseline. We then added the GAGome score to the model and assessed model improvement using the likelihood ratio test. We dichotomized outputs for the reference model and saturated model (reference + GAGome score) into high-risk versus low-risk categories using a 99% specificity cutoff and estimated the sensitivity for association with BCa at 7 yr. Key findings and limitations: We prospectively included 51 individuals with BCa and 38 with NED and observed alterations in three GAGome features compatible with BCa. We developed a score that discriminated BCa with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67–0.87). We retrospectively selected a cohort of 1088 presumed healthy adults (median age 48 yr, 56% females), of whom 48 had developed BCa by 7 yr after baseline (median time to diagnosis 1.4 yr). The GAGome score was an independent predictor of BCa at 7 yr when added to the reference model (p