Navigating adaptive futures: analysing the scope of political possibilities for climate adaptation

ABSTRACTThe growing scale and intensity of climate change poses a substantial challenge to the status quo of society and politics. Adapting to the risks associated with extreme weather events and changing climatic conditions will require the re-imagination of many aspects of politics and society. Therefore, climate change can be framed as a problem of imagination; one in which our relationship to the future is central to understanding how possibilities in the present are perceived. This research analyses public submissions made on New Zealand’s first draft National Adaptation Plan to understand how future climate adaptation is framed and imagined by different groups. In analysing submissions we identify and describe four thematic ‘adaptive futures’ that each argue for varied amounts of socio-political change from the status quo: data driven resilience; growth and opportunity; nature-society change; and flaxroots transformation. Underpinning these adaptive futures are emerging advocacy coalitions that seek to shape what is seen as possible, imaginatively, politically and materially. Our analysis also highlights how risks and opportunities are perceived by whom, and insights into attempts to delineate the boundaries of adaptive imagination and political possibility.Glossary of Māori terms: hapū: kinship group; iwi: extended kinship or tribal group; kaitiakitanga: intergenerational sustainability; kaupapa Māori: Māori approach, a philosophical doctrine, incorporating the knowledge, skills, attitudes and values of Māori society; kawa: protocols; mana: authority, dignity, control, governance & power; mana whenua: territorial rights, power from the land, authority over land or territory, jurisdiction over land or territory; te ao Māori: the Māori worldview; tikanga: correct procedures, lore & practises Definitions sourced from Blackett et al. 2022 & Te Aka Māori Dictionary