Understanding system interdependencies in sustainable paper production from residue grass biomass: Insights from fuzzy cognitive mapping

Abstract This research investigates the pulp and paper industry's transition to sustainability by valorizing unused roadside and natural grasses for paper production. Large-scale production from residual grass poses multifaceted challenges, requiring collaboration across stakeholders, from biomass collection to manufacturing. To understand key drivers and barriers within this complex system, experts from various fields, including local farmers, researchers, policymakers, and industry executives were interviewed, leading to the development of a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). The analysis explores various scenarios to assess how socio-economic, technological, and political factors influence the transition to low-carbon practices. These scenarios highlight the effects of varying levels of technology development, economic conditions, and policy support on the transition's progress and outcomes. Results show that the system is highly sensitive to shifts in socio-economic and political conditions. Political interventions play a crucial role, especially during energy crises and increased public demand for sustainable solutions. Grass-based paper production is seen as a viable pathway, but challenges such as the economic feasibility of emerging technologies remain. We recommend targeted policies to improve the economic viability of grass-based products and optimize biomass allocation between energy and bio-based products, ensuring a more balanced and sustainable transition.