The links between agriculture, Anopheles mosquitoes, and malaria risk in children younger than 5 years in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a population-based, cross-sectional, spatial study

Summary: Background: The relationship between agriculture, Anopheles mosquitoes, and malaria in Africa is not fully understood, but it is important for malaria control as countries consider expanding agricultural projects to address population growth and food demand. Therefore, we aimed to assess the effect of agriculture on Anopheles biting behaviour and malaria risk in children in rural areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo). Methods: We did a population-based, cross-sectional, spatial study of rural children (0]=0·89), with the probability of malaria infection increased between 0·2% (95% UI −0·1 to 3·4) and 2·6% (–1·5 to 6·6) given a 15% increase in agricultural cover, depending on other risk factors. The models predicted that large increases in agricultural cover (from 0% to 75%) increase the probability of infection by as much as 13·1% (95% UI −7·3 to 28·9). Increased risk might be due to Anopheles gambiae sensu lato, whose probability of biting indoors increased between 11·3% (95% UI −15·3 to 25·6) and 19·7% (–12·1 to 35·9) with a 15% increase in agriculture. Interpretation: Malaria control programmes must consider the possibility of increased risk due to expanding agriculture. Governments considering initiating large-scale agricultural projects should therefore also consider accompanying additional malaria control measures. Funding: National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, President's Malaria Initiative, and Royster Society of Fellows at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.